This is a year old, but it’s a great piece on how to build a football team: http://www.slate.com/id/2173817/pagenum/all/#page_start. Robert Weintraub comes up with this list that ranks positions in order of an importance to a football team:
Quarterback
Center
Offensive tackle
Safety
Defensive tackle
Middle linebacker
Running back
Offensive guard
Rush end/linebacker
Wide receiver/receiving tight end
Kicker
Punter
Cornerback
Fullback
Blocking tight end
My only arguments with him on this are that a) safety is much too high and b) rush end is much too low. Football is played from the line outwards. Good pass rushers can literally dictate an entire game. If you don’t believe me, read this, by Michael Lewis. A good pass rush can make great QB’s average and turn average secondaries into solid cover units. QB pressure changes offensive game plans and can set the tempo and tone of an entire game.
It’s also interesting to look at the Buffalo Bills from this perspective. How well do the Bills rank at these key positions?
1. QB – Trent Edwards is young and has a lot of tools, but the jury on him is still out. He has the requisite size, arm, and poise to be a very good quarterback, but he has yet to show much consistency or ability to beat top defences. Edwards’ poor play in cold weather has also been a concern, though perhaps yesterday’s game in frigid Denver will be a turning point for him in this area.
2. Center – where have you gone, Kent Hull? The Bills haven’t had effective center play since the Super Bowl days 15 years ago. Nominal starter Melvin Fowler was a free-agent cast-off from Al Franken-land and has now been replaced by the forgettable Duke Preston. Preston can be overpowered by stronger defensive tackles and has taken some killer penalties this season. The Bills had the chance to draft Nick Mangold back in 2006 (he lasted all the way to the end of the first round) but Marv Levy made a colossal blunder by moving up to take the useless John McCargo instead. I love Marv but this was an absolutely horrific mistake and it will continue to haunt the team for years to come.
3. OT – Well, Jason Peters sure earned that Pro Bowl bid, didn’t he? The best pick of the Tom Donahoe era (not that there was much competition), Peters was selected as a 350-pound tight end and last year became one of the best LT’s in the NFL. This year he held out all through camp and has basically been a non-factor for the team. He’ll be better next year if he doesn’t pull the hold-out stunt again but there is no way on earth he should be going to Hawaii this season. On the right, Langston Walker is a huge, overpaid, average player. The physical tools are there but his toughness is questionable.
4. Safety – Donte Whitner is a terrific player when healthy, though he’s missed some time this year. After him, the Bills deep secondary stinks. Bryan Scott is Matt Darby-reincarnated: a big physical #43 who can punish ball carriers but couldn’t cover a sandwich tray with all the cling-wrap in a plastics factory. Ko Simpson and John Wendling are Arena Football calibre guys.
5. DT – Marcus Stroud is a massive improvement to the D-line, both literally and figuratively. Kyle Williams has shown some improvement this year and Spencer Johnson is a decent extra guy. I said it at the time and I’ll say it again now: the Bills, never, EVER should have let Pat Williams walk after the 2004 season. 4 years on he’s still playing like a Pro Bowler.
The Bills are 7-8 because they don’t have outstanding talent at any one of the most critical positions on the field. If they had excellent coaching perhaps they could overcome these shortcomings but Dick Jauron is just overmatched as an NFL head coach.
Peters was an undrafted free agent. They are undeafeated when he does not play this year.
Right – thanks for correcting me. Donahoe still should be given credit, much as it pains me, for this signing. He foresaw correctly that Peters had the athleticism and strength to become a good tackle and he was right.
Cannot believe where he placed the kicker. I would probably rank kickers right after QB’s. They decide more games than anyone and are not overly affected by the rest of the team.
In theory I would think kicker would be more important too – especially to a team that plays close games. When I look at the kicking stats (available at http://www.nfl.com) I see that the 0-15 Lions have the highest percentage kicker in the league in Jason Hanson and that doesn’t seem to be doing them much good. At the same time, 8 of the top 10 kickers in 2008 FG % accuracy are on teams that are either in the playoffs or still in the hunt.
The 2007 stats are a lot harder to figure. Of the top 10 most accurate kickers, a whole bunch played on lousy squads – Cincinnati, Miami, San Francisco, Atlanta, and Buffalo. Those 5 teams combined to go 23-57 last year.
I’m guessing that a good kicker is less important if you have a team that can score when it gets inside the red zone. The Colts would be a good example. Maybe accuracy % isn’t the best way to look at this, since a kicker’s overall % may be higher on a team like Buffalo where the offence frequently stalls deep in the opponent’s territory. Probably look at % on kicks of 40+ yards would be a truer indicator of a kicker’s quality. Even a quick look at those numbers for 2008 doesn’t show much of a correlation with winning %, however.
Great article — thanks for surfacing. And great points about the relative rankings of safeties and rush ends. Totally agree.
I would argue that QB is too high on that list. Teams can win with mediocre QBs who can at least have enough time in the pocket to deliver a medium pass.
I point to statistically middling QBs like Trent Dilfer, Jim McMahon, Mark Rypien, Jeff Hostetler, Doug Williams, Eli Manning, and Phil Sims as evidence. Most of those mentioned benefitted from sound Ds that left them with good field position, but they also had solid blocking O lines that gave them the time to deliver the rock.
As such, I would rate the offensive tackle as the most important position, especially in this day and age of speed ends. These are the guys who get the Rolexes and steak dinners for keeping the QB’s uniform clean, and for good reason. O Guards are also underrated in this conception.
And of course, there is no single right formula — it all depends on the specific skill sets and ability of your team at each position. If you have a runner like Adrian Peterson, I think a premiere fullback becomes a little more valuable than, say, your punter or kicker. There is a reason why guys who ran behind someone like Lorenzo Neal were successful, above and beyond their talent alone.
I would also place more value on the skill set of a shut-down corner like, say, Woodson in his prime or Asomugha right now than a decent OLB.
Kickers are interesting — wonder what the average seasonal differential in points between the bottom third kickers in the league and the top third are. Would imagine it’s not that much, though a money kicker can indeed make a difference every single week.
Thanks for chiming in from the West Coast. The system certainly does matter.
I see your point that it’s possible for Trent Dilfer or Neil O’Donnell to take a team to the Super Bowl, but they can only succeed on a certain type of team. These guys led squads with dominant defences and running games, so all they had to do was make enough throws to keep defences honest and not turn the ball over. It seems like a simple enough formula but most defences just aren’t good enough to carry a team the way the 2000 Ravens did.
The other reason I’d say QB is so important is that the best ones have the ability to make everyone around them better. Someone who can throw deep with accuracy keeps safeties off the line of scrimmage and opens up the underneath passing game. A guy who can read defences gives the offence another edge by being able to change plays and put his skill players in good matchups. A guy who can manage the clock keeps the opposing D on the field longer and his own unit fresh. A good QB can simply control an entire football game and intimidate and mentally defeat an opponent.
I also think a factor to consider regarding kickers is that they just don’t play that many snaps during a game. The more you’re on the field the more chances you have to make an impact.
No doubt that a mediocre QB needs the support of a great D and other elements of offense — whether a great running game or some flat out studs at wide-out. But a mediocre QB like Jay Schroeder had a cannon for an arm and could keep D’s honest, even though he wasn’t the most talented arm, best clock manager, or brightest playmaking bulb on the gridiron.
Yes, it depends on your team, but sometimes just good is just good enough.
I hear what you are saying about a great QB making those around him better — no question the QB is in the best position to do that , especially if he can be a leader in the huddle. But the argument of ” a good QB makes those around him better” can be hung around other positions, too.
Let’s look at two LTs — first, the original, Lawrence Taylor. Here is a guy who forced whole offenses to change their schemes and entire formations to account for him. There is no question that his ability to blow up an offensive play helped make the jobs of guys like Pepper Johnson, Eric Dorsey, Jim Burt, etc. easier. And it enabled the Giants to get by with a sub-par secondary, made up of guys like Terry Kinard and Elvis “Toast” Patterson. The Giants fearsome D of ‘86 was unquestionably better thanks to LT’s presence.
Now let’s look at LaDanian Tomlinson in his prime. Here is a back of unique talent who made the entire offense better around him. Opposing D’s are forced to stack the box against the San Diego, enabling a sub-par corps of receivers like Reche Caldwell, Tim Dwight, David Boston, Vincent Jackson, etc. space downfield. Having an elite TE like Gates also helped make the receivers’ jobs a hell of a lot easier, too.
Not to mention Phillip Rivers’ benefiting from LT’s presence in the backfield….
So yes, an elite QB can win games regardless of the talent around him. But though possibly to a lesser degree, the very same can be said about elite players in other positions as well.
This is all to say that building a team around position is important. But the truly successful formula relies on talent, rather than position.